Hurricane Mitch

Hurricane Mitch was born on the 22^nd of October, 1998 in the Caribbean Sea.  It passed from a tropical storm to a category five hurricane, the highest possible rating.  This meant sustained winds of 155 mph or greater and storm swells of over 5 meters.  Mitch was actually stronger than this with sustained winds of over 180 mph (putting it into a hypothetical category six).  It slid west and then paused off the coast of Honduras, weakening to a category three before it moved south, making landfall on the 29^th.

When it did hit Honduras, it brought waves as high as 20 feet with it, inundating the northern coast.  For the next five days, Mitch stalled above Honduras, flooding the rest of the country with torrential rains.  In the mountains, up to 6.5 feet (FEET) of rain fell in less than a week.  This massive amount ran down the mountains, dislodging the soil in massive landslides, breaking riverbanks and knocking out almost every major bridge in the country (see map below).  It rained in the lowlands too, Choluteca in the south got 1.5 feet in ONE day.  The wind and rain devastated the crops in the field and in storage, destroying 20% of the café, 30% of the vegetables, 60% of the corn, 60% of the sugar cane, and 85% of the banana crops.  The landslides completely erased 25 villages across the country and wiped out 75% of the country’s transportation infrastructure.  The airports were under water.  If they had had sufficient helicopters, they would have been the only way to reach the remote villages.  When it finally moved north off of Honduras, the country was in ruins.  The president said that the last 50 years of progress had been erased.  The IADB called it “an unprecedented disaster”.  

1.5 million people (25% of the population) were homeless, the death toll was climbing towards 10,000, and almost twice that many were missing (and would never be found).  Food and water shortages were acute and malaria, dengue fever, and cholera were starting to appear.  A curfew was imposed by the government fearing rampant crime.  The streets and houses in the capital were literally filled with mud and buried debris. 

There’s little point in comparisons to Katrina.  The entire country was in ruins.  Mitch had rendered even the maps obsolete.

Choluteca Bridge

But, this is one of those instances when people step up.  There was no crime at all.  None of the looting we saw in Katrina or in the aftermath of Chile's earthquake.  People fought infection and no epidemics raged through the country.  Mexico sent 700 tons of food, The US pledged $80 M and offered the services of the US armed forces stationed in Honduras (why they are there, I don’t know) and their helicopters, Spain pledged $100 M, and Sweden promised $200 M over a three year period.  Honduras has been rebuilt.  However, it is hard for me to say how things have changed since 10 years ago.  People don’t record the incremental improvements nearly as well as the sudden disasters.  Not to say that Honduras is a shining example of development now, read my previous posts, it’s not.  And it still faces setbacks from rains and storms.  In 2008, flooding returned and 200,000 were affected.  This past September, rain washed out the main highway between San Pedro and Tegucigalpa.  But things are much better than they could be.

However, what really astounds me is how I didn’t know about this until I came down here.  I was 13 when this happened, in junior high.  Was I not aware that a country was almost literally wiped off the map?  Chalk this up as just another thing that I never knew about, alongside the Iran-Iraq war, the Algerian civil war, and UN Resolution 242. That darn Robert Fisk.

Typical Day

Pre-Work:

I start my day at one of two times, 6:15 am or 7:04 am.  If it is sunny and I went to bed at a decent hour, I go with the early start.  I turn off my alarm and roll out of my king-size bed (living large in San Pedro Sula).  Today is a running day.  I wear my sweet Nike watch all the time and have it on a continuous countdown from 10 minutes.  I throw on my vibrams and am usually out the door within 7-8 minutes of waking up.  Not bad.  I keep the watch on the countdown and let it go for either 4, 6, or 10 minutes, depending on how I'm feeling.  4 minutes is going to be a fast - slow run.  10 minutes will just be a heads up for when I need to turn around.  I typically run for 20-25 minutes.

After getting home, I need to cool down a bit and eat some grub.  Breakfast is some combination of eggs, chorizo, fruit, sweet bread (pan dulce), and / or fruit.  After eating and studying some GMAT (25 minutes), I shower (6 minutes), and head out for work.  No car, so I take a cab with Jose, my boy.  50 lempiras ($2.50).  Jose has this money, old white car that rattles and creaks as we drive.  He has to open the door from the inside for me but he's a nice guy.  His windows aren't heavily tinted like most of the cars here (I'm guessing for a combination of fighting heat and security problems).  On Thursdays I like to buy a newspaper (7 lempiras (~$0.50)) from the kid that sells them in the street by the hospital.  He is all business.  Jose and I usually chat about the US, church, and how I shouldn't buy a motorcycle.

The 7:04 option looks a lot like the previous option minus the running, the cooling down, and the chorizo.

He drops me off just outside the gate of the colonia (neighborhood) where I work.  These gates are great; hippies would call them green.  They are gravity powered, being weighted on one end by a quantity of large bulky rocks and operated by a human who pushes the opposite end up and then pulls it back down with a rope.  I walk past these marvels and through our own mechanical gates, giving a "Como vamos?" to the guards.  I usually beat Carolina into the office so I don't so "Hi" to anyone, just glance at the paper from yesterday and head to my desk.

Work:

I start my day off with a cold glass of water because A. water is good for you and B. I'm usually still hot from the run.  I pull up my outlook ((ctrl + windows key + O) for my Autohotkey users) to see if any work stuff has snuck up on me and I'm ready to go by 7:50.  Right now, I'm working on the potato supply chain so I'm either sketching out ideas or reading previous research studies.  My favorite part of the day is usually around 8:10 when Sandra, our cleaning lady, brings me the most delicious coffee.  I don't even like coffee but this stuff is amazing.  It tastes good even without sugar (but Sandra puts a lot in anyways).  After the coffee, I tend to work until lunch.

Lunches take up a good amount of time here.  If I leave for lunch, it will usually take 1 to 1.5 hours.  People like to run errands during this time which adds to its length.  Worse, the preferred venues are malls and chain restaurants.  Who likes this food?  I have eaten more fast food here in Honduras than in the previous 6 months, I swear.  I am starting to push for small restaurants establishments though so I'm optimistic.  One nice thing about lunch here is that it coincides with the European football leagues.  So if you leave for a late lunch, you can catch the second half of some quality matches.  While eating, especially if you are in the office, you have to be on look out for "buen provecho" (bon apetit, more or less) which everyone says whenever they see you eating.

Back to work after lunch.  More of the same with research and putting together ideas.  There are a lot of problems with the potato value chain here so it requires some thought.  More on this later.  Usually I work until 6 or 6:30.  I tell you, this is the life.  

After Work:

Leaving work is a little tricky.  I can almost always catch a ride with someone but I know one of these times I'll have to call a cab and try to describe where they need to meet me (Colonia Pedregal, 500 meters north of the hospital, across from the FUNADEH building).  This is literally the address so no dice with Google maps.

By the time I stroll through the gate of the house, it is dark.  By 6:30 you can see stars.  Once in the door, I start on dinner.  Typically tilapia, beans, rice, potatoes, pasta, or takeout of some kind.  While I eat, I either study or watch some CNN Espanol or the local news channel.  I love the subtle differences you wouldn't expect.  For instance, the anchor is talking to two people, and, while he is concentrating on person A, person B might be texting away on his phone.  Or, if there are two sports commentators with their laptops in front of them, one might have a big sticker of a brand or cause that he supports on the back of his laptop.  Very odd.  Also, while I am watching TV, I usually spot a small gecko that lives with me, darting across the wall behind the shades.

After dinner, I typically do some more work work and then either focus on essays for grad school or study for the GMAT.  The math section is troubling me.  I've got the watch on still so it keeps me focused. Every 10 minutes.  After I'm done studying I do a bit of reading (10 minutes plus an extra 5 minutes I cheat on) and call it a day.  I hope it will be sunny the next day and fall asleep.

Not Related to Honduras

Thankfully, this post has nothing to do with Honduras.  This is a post about shipbreaking.  Shipbreaking is the process of "recycling" or tearing apart of giant ships that have reached the end of their useful lives.  I stumbled across this topic when I was reading about the largest ship to have ever plowed the seas.

The Seawise Giant measured over 1,500 ft. and carried oil all over the world (just not through the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, or even the English Channel) for 30 years.  Interestingly enough, she was sunk by the Iraqis during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s but then refloated.  But then, in January of this year, the old giant was renamed, reflagged under Sierra Leone, and beached in Alang, India, to be broken for scrap metal.

But what happened then?  I looked up Alang and started reading more about shipbreaking.  I still know very little, but what I do know is sobering.  Every year, giant ships, covered with lead paint and filled with oil and asbestos are decommissioned and must be disposed of.  Taking them apart is an expensive, tedious job.  Unless you ship them to Bangladesh or India, of course.

The picture above is about 10% of the shipbreaking in Chittagong in Bangladesh.  You can view the Google Maps images for yourself here and here.  

Breaking a ship is accomplished with a minimum of technology.  Workers literally cut the ship apart piece by piece with blowtorches.  The giant pieces of metal are carried on workers shoulders up the beach.  I'm not sure why they can't pull the metal with vehicles.  Perhaps it is just cheaper with people.

This site gives a good high level overview of how the process works and you can see the 60 Minutes photo gallery here, right above some other great American reporting.

This makes me think.  This practice contaminates the ocean, ruins drinking water, kills and injures workers, and pays next to nothing, but people still do it.  As terrible as this job is, the workers prefer it to the next best alternative.  That is powerful.

Rollin' Dirty in Honduras

Not really although I would love to do some illegal activities (from the USA's perspective) while I'm here.  Generally this means bullfights but one never knows what will present itself.

I'm actually referring to driving through Honduras, which I've done a lot of in the past week or so.  Last week to Tegucigalpa, Monday to La Esperanza, and yesterday to Guatemala (almost).  All of this time in the car (as a passenger) allows me to appreciate how different this is than being a consultant in the US.

For instance, to start a travel day, I'm not picked up by my usual cab and whisked off to Seatac but rather riding shotgun over potholed roads to meetings I didn't realize I was going to have.  And, the meeting is much different than those that I'm used to setting up via Outlook and client admins.  Let's take Monday as an example. 

We drive for 2.5 hours to La Esperanza (photo to the right) to meet up with Marcko Theodoracopoulos.  Marcko literally wrote the book(s) on growing lettuce, cauliflower, broccoli, and potatoes in Honduras (fascinating reads here).  However, unlike my previous interviewees, Marcko arrived on a four-wheeler.  He’s a big guy; Greek ethnically but born and raised in Honduras.  We sat outside on the patio of a small internet café and chatted for a couple of hours on opportunities to increase vegetable production in Honduras.  Between Marcko, Chema, and Rynaldo (on the motorcycle in the picture), there was a lot of vegetable growing experience present.  I recorded the conversation as well so I could review it later, to make sure my Spanish could be double-checked.  Chalk up another difference there.  After the meeting we left La Esperanza to head back to San Pedro Sula.

On the way back from the meeting, I appreciate one of the biggest differences: being in Honduras.  Driving here really makes this apparent.    

The main road between the two largest cities (San Pedro Sula and Tegucigalpa) is more like a small highway we’d see in the country with some nice sections.  It twists and turns and changes from one lane both ways to two lanes (nice section pictured to the left) and back to one lane constantly.  There are many potholes and you have to be ready to move the car to avoid them.  As long as you are on the alert, it works out fine.  Sometimes you will pass an old truck that has broken down along the side of the road.  You know you are coming up on one because there are leafy branches torn off and placed in the road ahead of where the truck is.  Always three, for some reason.  These trucks must have to wait for a while before they are taken away or repaired.  I saw one with the driver sleeping beside his truck on the shoulder (it was early morning so I assumed he spent the night there).

And the country is beautiful. Every thirty minutes you pass by kids playing soccer just off the road in a yard, alley, or on a field.  Everything is green and there are hills and mountains everywhere.  The roads tend to dip in and out of the valleys so there are lots of gorgeous views filled with clouds and mist, rainy season as I'm sure you knew.  The rain is a problem here though.  I’ve passed multiple small landslides just off the road.  The land is especially prone to landslides.  In fact, a larger version of the little landslides I've seen has knocked out a portion of the main road between San Pedro Sula and Tegucigalpa.  Which means that you can’t even take the main highway the whole way to the capital.  You need to pull off the main highway and climb a steep dirt track to arrive at another pitted stretch of road.  Taking this, you circle the Tegucigalpa valley until you reach the next highway (about twenty-five minutes away).  It is really a sight to see the semis climbing and descending the dirt road.  If only this were the worst damage rain ever did to Honduras.

In summary: Honduras is not like the US.  Stay tuned for more revelations.

Running: Part II

As I said before, running let's you see experience things up close in personal ways.  In San Pedro, that means walls, gates, and barbed wire.  Not one single house along my routes, aside from the poor ones just past the river is without a wall and gate.  My house is relatively exposed; see through iron gate, 10 foot walls, and no security guard.  The nicest houses have 15 foot walls, solid metal gates, and maybe a security guard sitting out by the road with a shotgun.  Some of the really nice ones even have a small guard "tower" in a corner above the wall.  

This isn't where it stops.  Some of the neighborhoods, or "colonias" as they are called here, have gates / checkpoints.  This consists of metal pole crossing the road, manned by two or three guards.  We have one just outside of our offices.  Each day I'm waved in without any fanfare but the gate locks after 6.  After then the whole neighborhood can only leave through the one gate that is open all night. 

It's slightly surreal to run through these mini-canyons of cement.  You can look through some of the iron gates as you go past but others allow only a slit between two metal, sliding doors.  I think that it's important to recognize that this is the cost of grave inequality in a country.  

According to the UN, the ratio of the average income of the richest 10% of Hondurans to the poorest 10% is 59.  This number is shocking to me.  To provide some context: Haiti - 54, Mexico - 21, US - 16.  The map below from wikipedia is of the gini coefficients of countries worldwide.  The higher the coefficient, the more unequally income is distributed in the country.  Note the red, orange, and pink countries. 

Looking at these statistics, should we be surprised that people like Chavez and Morales are winning elections?

Running: Part I

Running in San Pedro Sula is great.  I've gone the last two days and am hoping to make it three in a row tomorrow morning.

There is nothing like getting out on the road to really know a place.  You know where the road rises and falls, where the sidewalks begin and end, where the trees hang in your path, where the sounds of traffic fade away.  I'm getting all of that and more now.

Running here is like running in a greenhouse.  The temperature sits in the low 80s or high 70s. Light cloud cover, light drizzle, and in the right streets, smells of flowers, little lizards, and big blue butterflies.

Today, I found a great route.  The blue one that zigs and zags in the above picture.  They call it the Ruta Coca-Cola after the giant Coca-Cola advertisement at the end (by the way, is there any company that has more successfully spread its brand worldwide than Coca-Cola?).  It is in the Parque de Merendon so there are few if any cars and a lot of green.  The route climbs steadily all the way to the end, which I've yet to get to.  As it curves back and forth, you can catch glimpses of the city below.  I haven't yet made it to the top but am eager to start using it as a measuring stick of my fitness level.  Don't worry, I'll keep you all posted.

Honduran Modern Political History 101

Time for a quiz.  Just three questions and then we'll see how we did.

1. Who is the current president of Honduras (10/2010)?

     A. Roberto Micheletti

     B. Porfirio Lobo Sosa

     C. Manuel Zelaya

2. Who was the president of Honduras last year (10/2009)?

     A. Roberto Micheletti

     B. Porfirio Lobo Sosa

     C. Manuel Zelaya

3. Who was the president of Honduras two years ago (10/2008)?

     A. Roberto Micheletti

     B. Porfirio Lobo Sosa

     C. Manuel Zelaya

Don't worry, I'll give you the answers in a second.  Now, most of you probably have no clue who the president of Honduras is or was, and that's probably okay.  I would expect those people to have picked one person throughout the quiz, assuming that the presidency wouldn't change every year.  A worthy strategy to be sure.  If you picked randomly, questionable.

In any case, here are the answers:

1. Porfirio Lobo Sosa (10/2009)

2. Roberto Micheletti (10/2008)

3. Manuel Zelaya (10/2007)

How'd we do?

Okay, so now to the point.  Honduran politics over the last two or three years have been tumultuous to say the least.  If you don't care about this topic, I suggest you stop reading now because it will get dense.  It all started back in 2006 with Manuel Zelaya and his election to the presidency.

Zelaya was born to a wealthy family that had made its fortunes in timber and logging in an eastern region of Honduras.  Along the way, his father, also named Manuel Zelaya, was accused and convicted for playing a role in a small massacre.  Don't worry, he ended up only serving a year.  But Manuel Jr. kept his nose clean mostly.  He was accused of embezzlement as head of the Honduran Social Investment Fund, where he managed to lose $40M, but never convicted.

Then, in 2006 he was elected President of Honduras with 49% of the vote, beating out Porfirio Lobo Sosa, the current president.  Under his leadership, Honduras moved to the left, joining a Venezuelan led alternative trading organization, increasing subsidies to small farmers, increasing the minimum wage by 80%, introducing free primary education, and pursuing other poverty alleviating measures.  Not bad.

Then Zelaya did something drastic.  In late 2008, he PROPOSED holding a national POLL that would gauge the nation's interest in forming a constituent assembly that could POSSIBLY modify the constitution.  This alarmed many.  Firstly, Zelaya, as empowered by the constitution, could already amend 368 of the 375 articles in the constitution without needing an assembly.  While no one knows for sure what he wanted to amend, the suspicion is that he was targeting three concerning presidential term limits, the permitted system of government, and the process of presidential succession.  Sound like something Chavez might do?  That's what others thought too.

Unfortunately for Zelaya, he then went on to say that an assembly could look at his possibly being re-elected (presumably by changing the constitution).  However, this intention had previously been ruled un-constitutional by a Honduran court and was upheld by the Supreme Court.  But, Zelaya proceeded anyways.  

• 3/25/2009 - the Attorney General tells Zelaya to stop the poll
• 6/03/2009 - Congress passes a resolution against holding the poll
• 6/11/2009 - the Bar Association unanimously agrees the poll is a violation of the law
• 6/18/2009 - Law Tribunal orders Zelaya to comply with previous rulings
• 6/23/2009 - Congress passes a law forbidding polls this close to elections (like this one)
• 6/24/2009 - Zelaya fires the head of military command for not arranging the poll
• 6/24/2009 - the heads of the army, navy, and air force resign in protest
• 6/25/2009 - Supreme Court rules 5-0 that the dismissal was illegal and reinstates officials

And now it get's interesting.  On the morning on which the poll was to be held, the military, under the orders of the Supreme Court, storms Zelaya's pad, disarming his guard, and rushing him off to an airport outside of Tegucigalpa (capital of Honduras, of course).  From there, he was quickly whisked away to Costa Rica, to avoid general havoc and potential loss of life, according to the military.  The Honduran government cut off most television and radio, blocked power and phone lines throughout much of Honduras, and suspended public transportation.  That very same day, the next in line to the presidency was sworn in by Congress.  Enter Roberto Micheletti.

Micheletti was from Zelaya's own party and had followed every Honduran law and organization out there all the way to being named president.  But, the international community went up in arms.  Not one single country recognized the new government.  The UN, the US, the EU, neighboring Central American countries all issued statements condemning the "coup".  Chavez threatened invasion (if his embassies were touched, what?) and Raul Castro pleaded that democracy be respected (again, what?) and Zelaya reinstated.

Conditions continued to exist in a state of craziness.  Zelaya, in Costa Rica, dropped $80,000 of public funds in less than a week rebuilding his wardrobe and eating out, Micheletti imposed a curfew in Honduras and restricted basic rights (like freedom of speech and habeas corpus), and general mayhem and uncertainty reigned.  Over the next month, Zelaya tried to re-enter the country twice and was twice rebuffed.  However, third time was the charm and in September, Zelaya and his wife showed up at the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa after traveling for 15 hours via little-used, back roads through the mountains.

The government's response? Curfews, suspension of civil rights, and termination of utilities to the Brazilian embassy.  Take that.  They also selectively shut down pro-Zelaya media.  Many countries demanded that Micheletti step down to let Zelaya resume the presidency but he refused to do so in advance of the elections due in November.  He did agree to form a unity government, but Zelaya declined to submit a list of candidates so Micheletti went ahead without him and formed it on his own (uniting with whom, I wonder).  Finally, the elections drew near and many major countries (including the US, thankfully) agreed to recognize the outcome

After the votes came in, Porfirio Lobo Sosa had won.  Lobo came from the conservative party, unlike Zelaya and Micheletti, and had been the runner up to Zelaya three years before.

And with that, the rest of the world seemed to forget about Zelaya and the Constitutional Crisis.  An exile for Zelaya was worked out and he left to the Dominican Republic in early 2010, Micheletti stepped down as planned, and the Honduran government was recognized once again by the international community.

So what is take away from all of this?  On the one hand, you can look at the situation as a confirmation that the rule of law functions in Honduras.  A popular president attempted to overstep his bounds, acting against the constitution and the Supreme Court.  He was then removed, impeached, and replaced according to the proper legal process.  However, on the other hand, you can view the situation as an over powerful elite acting to protect their own interests twisting laws and institutions to meet their ends.  As I mentioned earlier, this is a very stratified society.  A large portion of the media and of the corporations rests in the hands of small number of families.  These people would have little interest in a strong, leftist president in the mold of Chavez or Morales running their country.  In the end, both interpretations can be supported.

Now though, it seems to be fading into the past.  The people seem to have put it behind them now that Lobo Sosa has been elected.  Some refer to it as a "golpe de estado" (coup d'etat) while others do not.  As it wasn't a rift along party lines, animosity seems to be at a minimum.  So. What does all of this have to do with me?  Not much.  But how interesting.